Welcome to the offseason. As is customary, the end of the playoffs means the release of FanGraphs’ annual top 50 free agent rankings. In recent years, we’ve rotated through the writers principally responsible for the list – first Dave Cameron, then Kiley McDaniel, Craig Edwards, and, more recently, me. I’m back this year and I’ve brought help. the FanGraphs staff contributed mightily to this piece Show Below, I’ve provided contract estimates and rankings of the winter’s top free agents, along with market-focused breakdowns for the top 25 players. That could be a quick discussion of where a player might sign, what a team might look for, or even just statistical analysis masquerading as market analysis – I’m an analyst at heart and never stray far from my roots. Meanwhile, a combination of Michael Baumann, Justin Choi, Jay Jaffe, David Laurila, Eric Longenhagen, Dan Szymborski, and Jon Tayler supplied player-focused breakdowns, which are designed to provide some context for each player at this moment in his career. Special thanks to David Appelman, Sean Dolinar, Jason Martinez, and Meg Rowley for their help behind the scenes The players are ranked in the order in which I prefer them. That’s often the same as ranking them in contract order, but not always. In some cases, I prefer a player I expect will get less money over one who stands to make more. I’ll generally make note of that in the accompanying comment, but just to reiterate, this list isn’t exclusively sorted by descending average annual value or anything like that. All of the dollar amounts are estimated guarantees. Plenty of contracts will include team options or player incentives, but those aren’t included in these estimates. Player opt outs are similarly not included. All of the projections are Steamer 2023 projections, but use our Depth Chart playing time allocations. The lone exception is Kodai Senga, whose projection comes courtesy of ZiPS. The listed ages indicate the age-season the player is about to play Teams have five days after the World Series to make qualifying offers (this year worth $19. 65 million), after which time players have 10 days to accept or decline. We’ll update this post to reflect any qualifying offers extended after publication time. As a refresher, if a player receives and declines a qualifying offer, the team that eventually signs them forfeits a draft pick, while the team that made the offer gains one. Which draft picks change hands depends on the circumstances of both teams, as well as the total dollar value of the contract signed For a comprehensive list of this year’s free agents, which will be updated to include signings as they occur and crowdsource results for players whose future deals we polled on, please consult our Free Agency Tracker After last year’s collective bargaining saga, this year’s free agent market feels downright predictable. Do I know exactly what deal any given player will sign? Absolutely not. But the landscape is fixed, which means teams and players can negotiate at their own pace without a signing freeze or the risk of suddenly changing economic incentives Last year’s lockout-driven transaction freeze led to a rush of November signings. I don’t expect that to happen to the same extent this year, but I do expect more early signings than was common before 2021. From what I can tell, both players and teams that agreed to deals last November were generally happy with them, and it never hurts to have extra time to acclimate to new circumstances Of course, when players sign is less important than where they sign and for how much. This year’s free agent class is full of marquee names at the top. The best hitter and pitcher in New York are both on the market. Indeed, it’s a very New York-centric list; there are four players from the Mets and Yankees in the top 15, headlined by Aaron Judge and Jacob deGrom. That doesn’t even include Edwin Díaz, who was headed for free agency before re-upping with the Mets yesterday; he signed the largest ever contract for a relief pitcher Outside of the five boroughs, it’s yet another Year of the Shortstop. Carlos Correa’s short-term deal last offseason has only added to that crush; he, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson give teams on the hunt for strong bats at premium defensive positions a wide array of options But there’s more to the market than those headliners. This is a deep class of free agents; the crowd projects our 25th-ranked player to get two years at $12 million per year, for example. Last year’s class was similarly deep, but in previous offseasons, we’d be well into one-year lottery ticket territory by that point on the list If your favorite team is looking for starting pitching, the offseason should be good to them. There are 20 starting pitchers in the top 50 this year, and even if your team is frozen out at the top of the market, the depth options are nothing to sneeze at. An enterprising club could completely rebuild its rotation this winter without much difficulty. Have a young ace and a promising sidekick? Your three through five spots could be filled with above-average veterans in no time One part of the market I’m extremely interested in is what happens with older players who experienced a resurgence this year. Matt Carpenter was a revelation for the Yankees. Johnny Cueto was spectacular for the White Sox. José Quintana went from afterthought to the best starting pitcher on a playoff team. I couldn’t tell you which of those three is most likely to repeat their performance, but I can tell you that plenty of teams are crunching the numbers right now to try to find out This list could have been even better than it is. Díaz would have been the best reliever on the market. Nolan Arenado declined to opt out of his deal, though he would have been justified in doing so. He would have been among the very best players available this year. Adam Wainwright offered yet another solid pitching option, but he too will remain in St. Louis. As of publication, there are 10 players with pending options or opt outs. How likely I thought those players were to become free agents factored into my rankings, but a few of them are bound to stay with their current team. We’ll update the list to reflect those decisions as they come in Now without further ado, let’s get to the rankings Editor’s note. Following the publication of this piece, it was announced that Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Jacob deGrom, Jurickson Profar, and Taijuan Walker had resolved the option decisions in their contracts and become free agents. Carlos Rodón, whose decision to opt out was reported on Sunday, is also now officially a free agent A ballot processing error caused crowdsourced forecasts for previous offseasons to be included in this year’s crowdsource projections for players who had previously reached free agency. Those projections have been updated. We apologize for the confusion 1. Aaron Judge, OF , Age 31 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens9$35. 0 M$315. 0 MMedian Crowdsource8$37. 5 M$300. 0 MAvg Crowdsource7. 9$37. 2 M$294. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR66513. 9%24. 8%. 275. 381. 547. 39215743. 7-2. 16. 7 Ben’s Take You don’t get to sign people to provide last year’s statistics, and Judge will be 31 next year; the team that signs him isn’t assured he’ll be good forever. But he’s so good right now, and has been so good when healthy his entire career, that it doesn’t take a mathematical genius to predict future success. He has the highest projected WAR among free agent hitters, and one of the highest marks in the game, period. He’s the kind of free agent who immediately becomes his new team’s best player – or perhaps his current team’s, if he stays in New York as many expect Judge turned down a seven-year, $213. 5 million extension (the $17 million he was offered for the 2022 season brought the total to $230. 5 million) in April; I think his deal will beat that. The biggest question, for me, is how many years he’ll get; I settled on nine, but gave some consideration to shorter contracts with higher annual salaries. There’s really just not much else to say. Judge’s dominance was one of the defining stories of baseball this year, and where he lands will be one of the defining stories of the offseason Player Notes Now Judge’s professed desire to be “a Yankee for life” will be put to the test. His value has skyrocketed since the spring; his ZiPS projection for 2023-29 shot up from 18. 1 WAR to 34. 1 WAR. The question is how high the Yankees will go, presumably while retaining a face-of-the-franchise premium from their preseason offer. Working against Judge is his age (he turns 31 on April 26 next year), position, and fragility, though he just played a career-high 157 games and is fresh off his best two-year total (305). From a projection standpoint, a Brinks truck for Carlos Correa may make more sense, but belief in shortstop prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza has led the Yankees to eschew the high-end infielder market. That questionable decision may keep Judge in pinstripes, though it’s not implausible that the Mets, Giants, or even the Dodgers successfully woo him, perhaps capitalizing on Judge’s wounded pride (he disliked the Yankees publicizing their negotiations, and heard boos during a rough postseason) and/or his desire to return to his home state of California. – JJ 2. Trea Turner, SS , Age 30 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens9$32. 0 M$288. 0 MMedian Crowdsource7$30. 0 M$210. 0 MAvg Crowdsource7. 28$29. 8 M$217. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR6796. 9%17. 4%. 285. 338. 446. 34012219. 82. 64. 7 Ben’s Take The downsides? A lot of vague worries about the aging curves of speed-first players, Turner’s early-career injury issues, a potential eventual move to second and not much else. The natural fit for Turner is the Dodgers, but I expect plenty of big-market teams to come calling. The Red Sox will likely be looking for a shortstop. The Braves have enough financial flexibility to sign another star and love signing players born in the southeast – though to be fair Turner isn’t from Georgia. The Cardinals have the right payroll space and roster construction, though they don’t usually splash around in these waters. The Giants are in the market for a big name. If you’re tired of seeing a team in the playoffs, there’s a good chance that team is calling Turner’s agent Player Notes Known primarily for his speed and contact skills, Turner is second only to Freddie Freeman in batting average and trails only Starling Marte in steals over the last three seasons. But where he has separated himself as an elite player is with his surprising pull power. He leads the majors in doubles over that three-year stretch and is just three homers off Corey Seager’s pace at the position. And with shifting now banned, his elite speed makes him a surer bet to stay at short for the long haul than at least a couple of the other prominent shortstops in this free agent class. Aside from his below-average plate discipline, Turner is a complete player, a superstar in his prime poised to land one of the offseason’s biggest deals. – EL 3. Carlos Correa, SS , Age 28 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens10$30. 0 M$300. 0 MMedian Crowdsource8$32. 0 M$256. 0 MAvg Crowdsource7. 78$32. 2 M$250. 8 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR63710. 3%19. 0%. 273. 352. 462. 35313121. 45. 25. 0 Ben’s Take If you’re looking for a reason to doubt Correa, you’d have to look at his defense. But he’s a good defender, even if his Statcast numbers took a dip this year. Defensive metrics are noisy, and if you didn’t believe he was one of the best defenders in baseball last year (I didn’t), you probably shouldn’t believe he’s below average this year One major question I don’t have much insight into is whether Correa will want to take another short-term deal with opt outs to test the market. The answer could vastly change his potential landing spots. The Twins are a great example; I didn’t think they were in the running for Correa last year because I didn’t think they’d offer a contract with a total dollar outlay that could tempt him, but a short deal with a high annual number opens up tons of new options. Plenty of borderline playoff contenders have nice players at shortstop and constrained budgets; might they upset that apple cart for a few years to add an MVP candidate? It would surely be tempting, and could lead to some interesting short-term power shifts Player Notes This year, the top shortstops available are Correa, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, and Xander Bogaerts, with a massive drop-off to the rest of the field. Correa’s the youngest of the four, even Swanson, who was still playing college ball when Correa became a star in the majors. He pretty much lived up to the market’s lofty expectations for him while with the Twins and, almost as importantly, he was once again mostly healthy. After being plagued by injury from 2017-19, Correa has now been essentially healthy in each of the three most recent seasons, which ought to alleviate most of the lingering fears about his durability. I think there’s more to recommend Correa this winter than Corey Seager at this time last year, and I suspect someone will pay him accordingly. – DS 4. Jacob deGrom, SP , Age 35 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens3$47. 0 M$141. 0 MMedian Crowdsource3$40. 0 M$120. 0 MAvg Crowdsource3. 49$38. 7 M$135. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR168. 05. 3%34. 6%40. 9%2. 622. 332. 425. 55. 2 Ben’s Take Of course, you can’t guarantee health for deGrom, and that’s kind of the point. Two straight years of scary-sounding injuries and limited availability have put a damper on the prospects of the best inning-for-inning pitcher since Pedro Martinez. Can he keep throwing this hard and stay on the field? Can he even dial it back? There are no answers to these questions; teams will have to weigh them on their own. I think that gives the Mets a bit of an advantage when it comes to bringing him back, as they have more data than anyone else Even accounting for that risk, I think deGrom will set a record for average annual value. The top end is just so high; deGrom is better than any other pitcher in baseball, as you can see from his rate statistics up above. The combination of adding a pitcher of deGrom’s caliber for the playoffs and preventing your well-heeled opponents from doing the same is worth a fortune; baseball doesn’t always come down to the best two teams clashing, but when it does, you can bet the Dodgers would be willing to write a novelty-sized check to have deGrom on their side of the matchup. Are there risks? Absolutely. But in my eyes, teams will stomach them Player Notes On the other hand, across 2021-22, deGrom has not just been the best pitcher in the league, he’s been the best at most individual aspects of pitching. He’s struck out 44% of opponents and walked just 3. 4%, both best in the majors among starters with at least 100 IP in that span by a comfortable margin. He shares the highest average fastball velocity with Hunter Greene. He has the lowest FIP – only four other pitchers are within a run of him – and the second-lowest ERA Justin Verlander commanded his current one-and-one deal at $25 million per year when he was four years older than deGrom is now and basically hadn’t pitched in 30 months. Even with the injury question, what should deGrom ask for? $35 million a year? $40 million? His salary might end up looking as fake as his rate stats. – MB 5. Justin Verlander, SP , Age 40 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$40. 0 M$80. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$35. 0 M$70. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 02$34. 0 M$69. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR182. 05. 1%26. 6%35. 5%3. 503. 423. 464. 03. 6 Ben’s Take Verlander has stated that he wants to pitch until age 45, but I don’t think he’ll get there on one contract. In fact, he might go a similar route to last year at a higher dollar value; a short-term deal that he can make even shorter if he pitches a full year. He could also set a new precedent with a novel contract structure, perhaps with some kind of escalating or performance-based options. This is uncharted territory; you can’t find a comp for a 40-year-old pitcher with surgery in his recent past but also a 1. 75 ERA in his most recent season My best guess is that he settles on a two-year deal that pays him like Max Scherzer, only for fewer years. That structure works from both sides. it gets Verlander towards his goal at a handsome rate, while also ending reasonably soon if age finally vanquishes him. Duration will be the big question for teams in the hunt, and two years seems like a number both sides could be happy with Player Notes By reaching 130 innings, Verlander triggered a $25 million player option, but his strong comeback increases the likelihood he can find something along the lines of his two-year, $66 million deal for 2020-21. If he leaves Houston, he won’t lack for suitors. – JJ 6. Xander Bogaerts, SS , Age 30 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens7$31. 0 M$217. 0 MMedian Crowdsource6$28. 0 M$168. 0 MAvg Crowdsource6. 26$27. 6 M$172. 8 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR6449. 5%18. 9%. 271. 346. 432. 34012216. 24. 94. 4 Ben’s Take Yeah, about that. Opinions vary on whether Bogaerts can, in fact, play shortstop. He’s been a bat-first guy his entire career and just turned 30; a move to third base is likely forthcoming, but he doesn’t have a huge throwing arm, so he might be below average there too. None of that stops him from being a star, and he’d be a good bat even at DH, but the further he falls on the defensive spectrum, the less special his skill set is. I think he’ll be able to hack it at short for a year or two more before declining to a Justin Turner-esque third base defense. good actions but light arm Maybe Turner is an optimistic comp, but he’s a good reminder that excellent hitters don’t need to be elite defenders to add value; if you can play a passable third base, that counts for a lot. I think teams will be comfortable giving Bogaerts a long-term deal with a ton of zeroes. I just think they’ll do it knowing he won’t be a shortstop two or three years from now Player Notes The flip side is that all those games come at a cost, which is to say that Bogaerts is the oldest of the offseason quartet, having turned 30 in October. His days of being a franchise shortstop are, by extension, going to end sooner than the rest, though his below-average arm might make him stretched at third base and could eventually necessitate a shift to left field or perhaps over to second, à la Trevor Story. Still, even if you only get two or three more years of Bogaerts at shortstop, they’re going to be two or three very good years. His consistent excellence makes him a fine choice for any contender that needs reliable up-the-middle performance. – JT 7. Carlos Rodón, SP , Age 30 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens5$24. 0 M$120. 0 MMedian Crowdsource5$27. 0 M$135. 0 MAvg Crowdsource4. 87$27. 2 M$132. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR175. 07. 1%31. 2%36. 3%3. 182. 993. 124. 54. 1 Ben’s Take Why two years? That’s the length of time he’s shown this newfound form; he amassed 11. 1 WAR in those two seasons, and a combined 7. 0 in the previous six. The question that teams ask themselves about every free agent pitcher – will he be healthy enough to be effective? – is an even greater unknown in Rodón’s case. There’s plenty of evidence that he’s a great pitcher right now; whoever signs him will simply have to weight that more than those earlier years in the wilderness I don’t think that will stop teams from giving him a handsome contract, as you can see from my estimate. I do think that it will lower teams’ offers ever so slightly, however. At their core, most front offices are risk averse. As an old boss of mine once said, no one’s ever been fired for small steady profits. Making deals that go wrong is a job security killer. I think that’ll hurt Rodón somewhat, but that he’ll still get a nine-figure deal. He’s just that good Player Notes 8. Dansby Swanson, SS , Age 29 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens6$24. 0 M$144. 0 MMedian Crowdsource6$23. 5 M$141. 0 MAvg Crowdsource6. 03$23. 1 M$139. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR6797. 7%25. 2%. 246. 309. 412. 3151044. 54. 93. 3 Ben’s Take One potential hiccup in Swanson’s market? I’m not sure how many teams are shopping for shortstops. The Dodgers, Giants, Braves, and Red Sox are all clearly in the mix. The Twins will likely want to replace Correa, though not necessarily with a shortstop; they could give Royce Lewis a shot and allocate money earmarked for Correa elsewhere. Maybe the Cubs and Orioles would want to jump start a rebuild with an exciting player, but that’s idle speculation Those teams will all be scrabbling over Turner, Correa, and Bogaerts. The ones who miss might be interested in Swanson, but they could also rely on internal options; Swanson doesn’t quite move the needle like that top trio. In my opinion, he’s more at risk of a frozen-out market than anyone else in the top 10. Maybe that will result in an early return to Atlanta. Maybe I’m completely wrong. I’m just less clear on how Swanson’s market will shake out than I would be for most players with his résumé, thanks to the particulars of which teams both need shortstops and plan on spending this year Player Notes 9. Brandon Nimmo, OF , Age 30 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens5$22. 0 M$110. 0 MMedian Crowdsource5$20. 0 M$100. 0 MAvg Crowdsource4. 82$20. 7 M$100. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR65811. 8%17. 5%. 270. 369. 434. 35413123. 0-2. 24. 4 Ben’s Take But oh, that glorious on-base percentage. Nimmo posted a . 367 mark this year, good for 16th in the majors – and also the lowest full-season mark of his career. He takes walks by the bushelful. He rarely strikes out. He gets hit by more than his fair share of pitches. These are all stable skills from one year to the next. In plain English. Nimmo is going to get on base at a ludicrous clip, year after year He might not do it in center field forever, but who cares? He can play there now, and he’ll rack up gaudy offensive numbers while doing so. He even demonstrated some power upside this year, cranking 16 homers and posting the highest exit velocity of his career (111. 9 mph). It’s not the most traditional profile, but Nimmo will deliver star-level value if he keeps up his current pace Player Notes While just being healthy would have been enough to give a boost to his offseason prospects, Nimmo has also shored up some of the weaker parts of his game. Generally one of the more passive hitters in baseball, he’s been more aggressive at the plate, managing to simultaneously improve his contact rate without eviscerating the quality of that contact, a difficult balance for any hitter. Once believed to be a tweener outfielder who would have trouble staying in center, he’s improved there as well, with positive Statcast metrics the last two seasons. Even UZR, long a skeptic of his defense, has come around. From 2016-20, it pegged him for -13 runs per 150 games, but over the last two seasons, which make up two-thirds of his center field experience in the majors, the system has him a few runs in the black. At the very least, Nimmo is likely to be able to handle center for most of his upcoming contract There were rumors recently that the Rockies wanted to sign Nimmo to a $120 million contract. Those rumblings were mostly due to a misreading of Denver Post reporter Patrick Saunders’ description of an estimate of Nimmo’s value, but that figure isn’t a preposterous one. ZiPS thinks Nimmo will still be an above-average player in the fifth year of his next contract, and while it never projects the playing time over/under to be above 135 games, it’s still good enough for a five-year estimate of $117. 5 million. Given Nimmo’s status as the clear second-best outfielder available in free agency — I’ll let you guess who the top one is — I think he’ll make out well. – DS 10. Willson Contreras, C , Age 31 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens4$20. 0 M$80. 0 MMedian Crowdsource4$17. 7 M$70. 6 MAvg Crowdsource3. 84$17. 4 M$66. 8 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR5359. 3%23. 9%. 239. 333. 429. 3351189. 45. 43. 1 Ben’s Take I think many won’t, but I’m not sure it matters. His bat comfortably plays at DH, and he’s spry enough even after years of squatting that I bet he could play a credible outfield corner if necessary. He could also continue to catch. While he’s not a great receiver, he’s always controlled the running game well, which will be important next year given the new pickoff rules. I’m not sure how suitors will deploy Contreras, but maybe it doesn’t matter. He’s going to hit a lot. Where he ends up defensively is far less important than all that offensive value he’ll create Player Notes Now, defensively Contreras has his drawbacks. This year, he was just 27th in framing runs out of 40 catchers with at least 500 innings at the position. That’s not great. But hey, we’ll probably have robot umps in the next few years, right? And if not, Contreras’ arm and athleticism should stand him in good stead in an outfield corner. To say nothing of, again, the bat. If you want a catcher who can really hit, there aren’t any other options on the market. – MB 11. Clayton Kershaw, SP , Age 35 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens1$20. 0 M$20. 0 MMedian Crowdsource1$20. 0 M$20. 0 MAvg Crowdsource1. 55$20. 6 M$32. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR157. 05. 5%25. 0%45. 6%3. 343. 283. 233. 33. 3 Ben’s Take Over the past five years, he’s posted a 2. 83 ERA. He’s not as durable as he used to be, but he’s pitched 646 innings in those years, 26th in all of baseball. All three of his pitches still hum; his fastball continues to befuddle hitters even as it loses raw speed, and both of his breaking pitches remain dominant. He’s leaning on his slider more than ever, and why shouldn’t he? It’s one of the best sliders in history He’ll probably return to the Dodgers on a one-year deal. He did just that last year, and the arrangement worked out well for both sides. The Dodgers will let him do what he wants; they chose not to extend a qualifying offer last year not for economic reasons but because the return seemed small in exchange for the cost of inconveniencing a franchise legend. Kershaw feels like part of the fabric of baseball at this point, and I expect that he will for years to come, all while our brains keep thinking he’s washed up Player Notes When healthy, Kershaw is still Kershaw. precision fastballs, wipeout sliders, loopy curves, lots of quick at-bats and surgical dispatches of overwhelmed hitters. But his days of being a 200-inning horse are long gone; he’ll be 35 in March, and even if his arm and back hold up, he has to be managed carefully to get through a season with enough in the tank to perform in October. He’s not quite at full Hill status yet — Kershaw isn’t a five-and-fly junkballer getting by on grit and gunk. But he is slowing down, and discussions about retirement now come up more freely, suggesting that he can see the end of the road coming at him. Bet on another short-term deal, likely to keep him in Los Angeles, as he makes his way through the twilight years. – JT 12. José Abreu, 1B , Age 36 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$18. 0 M$36. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$16. 0 M$32. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 23$17. 0 M$38. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR6728. 4%18. 7%. 276. 348. 448. 34712618. 4-15. 52. 6 Ben’s Take Each of those seasons has been with the White Sox, and when it last looked like he might leave in free agency, the team signed him to an above-market deal to keep him in the fold. To hear the organization tell it, Abreu is a key part of what they’ve assembled in recent years, equal parts recruiter, teacher, and clubhouse leader. How many good years does Abreu have left? I’d bet on at least a few, and I’d bet on them happening in Chicago. Like Kershaw, he’s technically a free agent, but I don’t buy it. I don’t think he’ll play for another team before he retires Player Notes And where a lot of sluggers struggled with this year’s less lively ball, Abreu suffered few ill effects, and even remade his offensive game somewhat, an unusual feat for a mid-30s slugger. Abreu punished baseballs with the usual vigor, but he did it in a more controlled fashion than he ever has before. He had the best plate discipline numbers of his career across the board, resulting in a career-best ratio of walks to strikeouts. Despite hitting just 15 home runs, easily the least impressive total he’s ever put up, his wRC+ was still an excellent 137 thanks to his reconfigured profile Abreu turns 36 before Opening Day, so he’s not likely to land a massive contract. But there are more DH jobs in the majors now than there were a few years ago, and if I were a contending team, I’d be very comfortable signing Abreu to a pact similar to his last one. If the White Sox don’t close a deal with him, it will be a real shame, as the team could use the bat, and beyond that, he’s been a big part of the team’s turnaround. – DS 13. Anthony Rizzo, 1B , Age 33 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$16. 0 M$32. 0 MMedian Crowdsource3$18. 0 M$54. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 45$17. 9 M$44. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR56710. 1%17. 7%. 241. 339. 441. 34012111. 2-9. 72. 1 Ben’s Take At 33, he’s likely not looking at a long-term deal, but I expect that plenty of teams will kick the tires on what it would take to secure his services. I count eight legitimate playoff contenders that received below-average production from first base last year. Add in the Yankees and a few teams that believe in themselves more than I believe in them, and you’re looking at more than a third of the league. That’s a lot of possible landing spots, enough that Rizzo might be able to wrangle a longer contract than I’ve projected. That’s the chief uncertainty here; there’s little question that he’ll find a robust market and then hit for whichever team he lands on Player Notes Rizzo is a good fit for the Yankees, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he returns, though a couple things might give them pause. First, the metrics (including -3 DRS and -2 RAA) don’t support him being a Gold Glove finalist, and second, he was limited to 130 games by multiple bouts of back spasms, including one that required an epidural in September. He’s no spring chicken. – JJ 14. Chris Bassitt, SP , Age 34 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens3$17. 0 M$51. 0 MMedian Crowdsource3$16. 0 M$48. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 6$16. 1 M$42. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR192. 06. 8%21. 0%44. 1%4. 033. 963. 932. 52. 4 Ben’s Take Everyone always needs more pitching. There’s no rotation in all of baseball where Bassitt wouldn’t fit. He won’t be an ace. He might not be a no. 2 starter. But those are just labels, and no team goes into the offseason saying “no. 2 starter or bust. ” Bassitt will give whichever team signs him a bunch of innings, and above average ones at that. That might sound like the middle class that’s been getting squeezed, but bankable starting pitching is exempt from the crush. It’s at a premium every single year. I don’t know where Bassitt will end up, but a staggering number of teams could use his services Player Notes 15. Nathan Eovaldi, SP , Age 33 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens3$17. 0 M$51. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$15. 0 M$30. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 12$15. 5 M$32. 9 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR155. 05. 4%21. 5%43. 5%3. 893. 833. 712. 42. 1 Ben’s Take But despite that bundle of similarities, the two feel very different. Eovaldi is only a season removed from a 5. 7-WAR 2021, a height Bassitt has never approached. He also missed time in 2022 with back and shoulder injuries en route to 109. 1 innings pitched across 20 starts. Both pitchers will be in demand, but I suspect Eovaldi’s market might be narrower. Teams with plenty of bulk starter types but few top end guys seem like a good fit for me. Maybe you’ll get 2021 Eovaldi, a great triumph. Maybe you’ll get an innings eater, totally acceptable. And if you get 2022 Eovaldi, or any of the previous Eovaldi years where he made 20-25 starts? That’s where the depth comes in. The Cardinals are the first name that pops into my head, but plenty of teams fit that bill closely enough to be in on him Player Notes The good news is that Eovaldi’s secondaries — his splitter and curve — remain above-average pitches; less so his slider and cutter, which leaked into the strike zone far too often. He also still gets plenty of whiffs. It’s keeping his pitches away from barrels that was an issue last year, and with better health and velocity, that should be more doable. Any team that signs Eovaldi expecting no. 1 starter-type production likely won’t get it, but he has the stuff and track record to make him a viable mid-rotation starter for a contending team, assuming he can stay off the injured list. – JT 16. Tyler Anderson, SP , Age 33 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$15. 0 M$30. 0 MMedian Crowdsource3$14. 5 M$43. 5 MAvg Crowdsource2. 42$14. 5 M$35. 1 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR177. 06. 0%18. 4%37. 4%4. 304. 354. 401. 71. 7 Ben’s Take The key driver of Andreson’s success is a reworked changeup. He’s throwing it slower and with less induced vertical movement now, which allows it to drop like a stone while fading arm side against opposing righties. He also doubled down on a wrinkle from last year. a drop-down sinker that he throws exclusively to lefties. He releases it roughly a foot lower than the rest of his arsenal, turning into a sidearmer. It creates a nasty angle for same-handed hitters, who pick up the ball while it’s headed for their hip. He now also spins cutters from both arm slots to further confuse the opposition I have no idea what the long-term prospects are for a pitcher who changes his release point that dramatically. Anderson is essentially a sidearm specialist against lefties and an over-the-top changeup type against righties, which seems great to me offhand. He’ll be a great test case in how much non-Dodgers teams buy into the sustainability of Dodgers-driven improvements Player Notes For a pitcher who has only had two other seasons of at least 2. 0 WAR, all that could look like a fluke, but Anderson has become yet another data point in the Dodgers’ ability to identify traits that can help unlock stardom. He should be able to parlay his gains into a multi-year deal in Los Angeles or elsewhere. – JJ 17. Andrew Benintendi, OF , Age 28 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens4$14. 0 M$56. 0 MMedian Crowdsource4$14. 0 M$56. 0 MAvg Crowdsource3. 67$14. 1 M$52. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR5609. 1%17. 2%. 267. 338. 408. 3281138. 0-4. 62. 3 Ben’s Take If you’re a glass half full type, Benintendi just turned 28 and is an on-base machine, a younger version of Brandon Nimmo. He has a line drive-oriented swing that won’t produce much power without a heavily juiced baseball, but that supports a ton of doubles and singles. He also rarely strikes out and draws walks at an elite clip. That’s a player you can slot at the top of your lineup for the next four years and feel happy about If you’re a downer, though, the warning lights are glaring. Only a year ago, Benintendi hardly walked at all and struck out more often. He’s an average corner outfielder who doesn’t add value on the basepaths anymore. He has no power to speak of. If his OBP ticks down, there aren’t many tools to replace it. Walk rates generally feel less stable for hitters who can’t punish opposing pitchers if they flood the zone. If Benintendi is a 100 wRC+ bat in two years, I wouldn’t be surprised Where will that land him? I have no idea. I think he’s a cut above that dreaded middle class of hitters, the guys who get one-year deals and bop from team to team, but it’s a near thing. If I were Benintendi, I’d prioritize getting a deal done early in the offseason; there’s been a musical chairs feeling to the second half of the offseason in recent years, and he risks not finding a seat thanks to his mid-tier skill set Player Notes Benintendi changed teams for a second time shortly before this summer’s trade deadline, going from the Kansas City Royals to the New York Yankees. A broken hamate bone subsequently ended his season in early September after he’d played just 33 games in pinstripes. Benintendi has reportedly expressed an interest in returning to New York, although the Cincinnati native may ultimately find a better fit elsewhere. A Red Sox reunion seems unlikely — this despite Boston’s need to upgrade their outfield — but numerous other clubs should be kicking the tires. His hometown team could very well be one of them if they’re willing to spend some money. Reds outfielders combined for 5. 2 WAR in 2022, the second-lowest total in the majors. – DL 18. Kodai Senga , SP , Age 30 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens4$14. 0 M$56. 0 MMedian Crowdsource4$15. 0 M$60. 0 MAvg Crowdsource3. 99$14. 9 M$59. 4 M2023 ZiPS Projections IPBBKGSERA+ERAWAR140. 054166221183. 542. 9 Ben’s Take While his raw stuff is impressive, there are also reasons for concern. His two-plane fastball doesn’t overpower hitters up in the zone. His feel for breaking pitches comes and goes, which puts a lot of pressure on his splitter in starts where nothing else is landing. As Eric Longenhagen noted to me, there’s some Eovaldi to him; the stuff can look overpowering one day and the repertoire reliever-ish the next ZiPS buys what Senga is selling – the system thinks he’ll be in the 3-WAR range next year. That’s a solid projection – and gives more substance to the Eovaldi comp – but I think teams might discount Senga somewhat thanks to uncertainty about his pitch mix and fastball shape. On the other hand, teams won’t have to pay a posting fee, as he’s a true free agent. I think there’s a chance that Senga ends up returning to NPB, but I hope I’m wrong; I’d love to see that splitter in action next year Player Notes Senga has added four ticks to his fastball since debuting in NPB. This wasn’t a gradual increase, either – it happened all at once in 2019. He now sits 96 mph and will touch as high as 102, though he typically tops out at 99 in any given start. Even though premium velocity is rare in Japan, Senga’s fastball doesn’t play like a premium pitch due to its shape and angle. In fact, his dastardly mid-80s splitter, which falls off the table and finishes below the strike zone, is easily his best offering, garnering twice as many swings and misses as his fastball in 2022, and about as many whiffs as the rest of his many pitches combined. Those pitches (in order of usage) are a cutter, slider, and the occasional curveball, all bending in anywhere between 94 and 75 mph, with the slider’s shape and velo sometimes bleeding into the other two. While his breaking ball command is inconsistent, Senga’s velocity, splitter, repertoire depth, and demonstrated durability make him a fit as no. 3 or 4 starter on a contender. – EL 19. Taylor Rogers, RP , Age 32 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens3$10. 0 M$30. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$7. 5 M$15. 0 MAvg Crowdsource1. 97$7. 6 M$15. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR62. 07. 0%27. 5%44. 5%3. 263. 203. 240. 20. 2 Ben’s Take I’m inclined to give Rogers a mulligan for his struggles in Milwaukee. Everything he threw turned into a home run; a 27. 3% HR/FB mark is hard to recover from regardless of what else you do well. That led to some nibbling, which led to some walks, which led to the homers hurting more… it was a vicious cycle that scuttled his season. I just don’t see much reason to think that will persist into next year. Teams that already have a few solid bullpen arms could kick their unit up to the next level by adding Rogers, and the price won’t be unthinkable Player Notes His track record is that of a much better pitcher. Over seven big-league seasons, the first six of which he spent in a Minnesota Twins uniform, the 31-year-old southpaw has a 3. 42 ERA, a 3. 06 FIP and 445 strikeouts in 379 innings. He had 30 saves in 2019, nine in the COVID-shortened ‘20 campaign, and 31 this season. Moreover, he’s been especially effective against same-sided batters. Lefties have slashed a woeful . 196/. 260/. 276 with a . 239 wOBA against Rogers since he broke into the big leagues; this year, they posted a . 167/. 261/. 250 line and . 235 wOBA. Despite an inauspicious two-month tenure in Milwaukee, he projects as a valuable late-inning bullpen piece going forward. – DL 20. Martín Pérez, SP , Age 32 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$15. 0 M$30. 0 MMedian Crowdsource3$13. 0 M$39. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 61$13. 6 M$35. 5 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR191. 08. 1%19. 1%47. 6%4. 184. 154. 101. 92. 0 Ben’s Take Pérez’s career prior to 2022 shows what teams often get when they sign a free agent in this tier. You can’t count on above-average performance; if you could, you’d have to pay him more. But I like Pérez’s odds of putting together another good season. He’s one of many pitchers who benefitted from throwing fewer four-seam fastballs, and his current sinker/cutter/changeup pitch mix suits him well. He’s durable, which is a huge selling point when you’re signing pitchers who are more notable for the innings they’ll fill than their likelihood of winning the Cy Young. His cutter looks as good as it ever has. Truthfully, I think Pérez will be a bargain. I just think that his track record and age will hold him back from getting a bigger deal Player Notes The Rangers bypassed the chance to trade Pérez at the deadline, as he told them he wanted to stick around long-term. Given the need to overhaul a rotation that ranked 13th in the AL in ERA (4. 63) and 12th in WAR (5. 8, meaning that the other starters besides Pérez netted 2. 0), it makes sense for the two sides to renew their vows. – JJ 21. Jameson Taillon, SP , Age 31 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens3$14. 0 M$42. 0 MMedian Crowdsource3$12. 0 M$36. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 88$12. 5 M$36. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR170. 05. 8%20. 2%39. 2%4. 334. 204. 101. 91. 5 Ben’s Take That four-seamer and a new cutter augment what he’s always done well. spin the ball. His slider and curve are both excellent, and the slider is particularly nasty against opposing righties. Yankee Stadium’s cozy dimensions may even have been holding him back; he’s squarely a fly ball pitcher now, and opposing teams packed their lineup with lefties against him, a bad combination in the Bronx. Moving to a park with spacious dimensions would likely suit him well That’s a lot of praise, but I still think he’ll sign a cookie-cutter contract because the raw results haven’t been overpowering even with his new pitch mix. It sure feels to me like there could be more in the tank, but “could be more in the tank” is the kind of description that gets you a short deal with a good team. I think Taillon will do a bit better than that, but for the most part, I just wish he’d left the Pirates and figured out his repertoire a few years sooner Player Notes When he was interviewed here at FanGraphs this past August, Taillon spoke of how he is foundationally the same pitcher he’s always been, but has cleaned up his mechanics, improved some of his pitch profiles, and tweaked his usage. No longer just a hard-thrower with a plus curveball, he’s now more of a tactician, albeit one who has largely retained his younger-self velocity. Attacking the zone is a big part of his M. O. Taillon has averaged just 2. 2 walks per nine innings over the course of his career, and this year that number was an exemplary 1. 6. The quietly effective righty throws strikes. – DL 22. Taijuan Walker, SP , Age 30 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens3$14. 0 M$42. 0 MMedian Crowdsource3$13. 0 M$39. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 86$14. 3 M$40. 9 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR152. 07. 4%18. 9%42. 5%4. 394. 384. 261. 41. 2 Ben’s Take If I were Walker, I’d consider taking a one-year deal somewhere to act as a platform season. The form he showed this year was appreciably better than his career before 2022. Teams might not totally buy into that, but a second straight year of good results changes the calculus considerably. I still have him projected for a three-year contract with modest annual value, but I think he’s the player in this section of the list most likely to bet on himself by taking a short-term deal Player Notes Nearly a decade after being ranked as the top prospect in the Seattle Mariners system — before that he excelled on the hardwood as a rim-rattling forward at Yucaipa High School in California — the 6-foot-5 right-hander presents as a solid mid-rotation option for teams that could use another established arm. (That’s all of them, folks. ) Health will be the primary knock against Walker, as his injury history includes both shoulder and elbow woes — he had Tommy John surgery in 2018, and threw just 67. 1 innings from 2018-20. – DL 23. J. D. Martinez, DH , Age 35 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens1$15. 0 M$15. 0 MMedian Crowdsource1$12. 5 M$12. 5 MAvg Crowdsource1. 56$12. 9 M$20. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR6098. 5%24. 9%. 250. 318. 421. 3221093. 4-14. 70. 9 Ben’s Take I don’t think that’ll stop someone from betting on Martinez, lack of positional versatility and all. All those factors I mentioned are scary, but none of them are definitive, and the allure of recapturing peak Martinez on a bargain deal will be strong. I don’t think he’s in the top tier of hitters anymore, but he won’t be seeking that type of contract As a late-career turnaround bet, signing Martinez makes a lot more sense. If I were a GM, I don’t think I’d try it; the signals I trust most don’t feel particularly encouraging. But they’re plenty noisy, Martinez isn’t that far removed from being great, and it’s not like he’s been bad in the last two years; an aggregate 123 wRC+ and 3. 8 WAR at DH is just fine. Some team with space at DH is going to land him and hope he returns to his 2019 form. They just might be right Player Notes The irony of the adoption of the universal DH is that it came far too late to buoy Martinez’s value as a free agent. While there are now twice as many landing spots for him this offseason compared to his last foray into the market, it’s unlikely that many of those teams are eager to spend on a 35-year-old with more red flags than a minefield. An abjectly terrible defender and someone who runs the bases like he’s wearing ankle weights, Martinez will sink or swim on the strength of his bat. And while he hit enough to end up on the positive side of the ledger stats-wise, the overall package is decidedly one-note. – JT 24. Justin Turner, 3B , Age 38 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens1$14. 0 M$14. 0 MMedian Crowdsource1$12. 0 M$12. 0 MAvg Crowdsource1. 31$11. 9 M$16. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR5609. 1%17. 5%. 263. 339. 410. 3301146. 9-6. 62. 0 Ben’s Take You could do a lot worse than Turner even if your only slot for him was as a full-time DH. But that’s more or less theoretical. It’s like saying that Old Faithful would look nice if it abandoned Yellowstone and declared National Park free agency. That might be true – personally, I think it would look spectacular in the Great Smoky Mountains – but it’s not happening. That’s how I feel about Turner’s “free agency. ” Fun in concept, but only that Player Notes 25. Jean Segura, 2B , Age 33 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$13. 0 M$26. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$12. 0 M$24. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 24$12. 3 M$28. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR5606. 7%15. 4%. 273. 330. 395. 3181064. 71. 42. 6 Ben’s Take Maybe you’d quibble with premium defense, but Statcast thinks he’s been the third-best second base defender over the past three years despite missing time with injury. Maybe you’d quibble with league-average bat, but you shouldn’t. He’s been 9% better than league average over the past seven seasons, and with little volatility; his worst year still worked out to a 91 wRC+. It’s an OBP-heavy offensive line driven by an elite contact rate, but it’s good nonetheless, and the Phillies could always use more runners on base for their sluggers to drive home Given the rest of their roster, second base and starting pitcher are the two positions that the Phillies are most likely to look for in free agency. Segura is the best second baseman on the market. He’s good at the things they’re bad at, and keyed an improved infield defense this year. Not all free agency decisions need to be difficult. This one just makes too much sense not to happen Player Notes 26. José Quintana, SP , Age 34 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$12. 0 M$24. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$12. 0 M$24. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 09$11. 6 M$24. 3 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR164. 07. 7%20. 7%45. 1%3. 993. 983. 952. 02. 1 Player Notes 27. Noah Syndergaard, SP , Age 30 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$12. 0 M$24. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$14. 0 M$28. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 16$14. 2 M$30. 7 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR153. 06. 0%16. 9%43. 3%4. 624. 374. 301. 40. 8 Player Notes Does that make him unemployable? That depends on what you want out of him. He smartly abandoned his diminished four-seamer as the year went on in favor of a sinker that didn’t produce any extra whiffs but was hard to hit, with a . 284 wOBA and run value of -10, per Statcast. His slider boasts more dip than run now, too; Syndergaard seems to have embraced fishing for weak contact instead of hunting for swings and misses. Still broken is his once-vaunted changeup, which now has very little separation from his fastball, but a clever, enterprising team may be able to build a new version of Thor that can at least get by. The old Noah Syndergaard is gone for good, but that doesn’t mean he can’t contribute useful innings in the middle of a rotation. – JT 28. Sean Manaea, SP , Age 31 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$12. 0 M$24. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$10. 0 M$20. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 16$11. 0 M$23. 8 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR154. 06. 6%22. 3%40. 6%4. 054. 003. 861. 92. 0 Player Notes Now, pitchers who are left-handed, can make 30 starts a year, and have any track record of success whatsoever tend to get a lot of rope. See. Steven Matz, who boomed and busted throughout his 20s and still got four years and $44 million from the Cardinals. But surely Manaea would’ve wanted to head into free agency selling himself as a potential no. 2 starter rather than the buy-low candidate he’s become. – MB 29. Corey Kluber, SP , Age 37 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens1$12. 0 M$12. 0 MMedian Crowdsource1$11. 0 M$11. 0 MAvg Crowdsource1. 28$11. 4 M$14. 6 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR159. 05. 5%18. 7%39. 1%4. 454. 354. 261. 71. 3 Player Notes 30. Michael Conforto, OF , Age 30 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens1$12. 0 M$12. 0 MMedian Crowdsource1$12. 0 M$12. 0 MAvg Crowdsource1. 66$12. 0 M$20. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR56711. 1%21. 7%. 244. 340. 418. 33311710. 3-10. 71. 9 Player Notes Still, there are a few factors that work in Conforto’s favor, resulting in his healthy ranking on this list. The market for outfielders this winter is paper-thin, and assuming we don’t pretend that J. D. Martinez is anything other than a DH, you can make a strong case that Conforto is the fourth- or fifth-best outfielder available. He also no longer comes saddled with a qualifying offer, which would have been a rich price to pay for a team wanting to sign him to an incentive-laden one- or two-year contract. I still think Conforto will sign a fairly short-term deal, leaving him the chance to hit free agency again in a year or two, but there’s enough upside here that I think he’ll be able to make a real choice when picking his next employer. – DS 31. Trey Mancini, 1B , Age 31 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens1$12. 0 M$12. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$8. 0 M$16. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 05$8. 9 M$18. 2 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR5959. 0%23. 4%. 244. 321. 409. 3191073. 6-11. 41. 2 Player Notes Mancini will turn 31 before Opening Day 2023, and even when he was hitting at an All-Star clip, he never contributed much with the glove. (His defense at first base is fine, and he plays the outfield like an average defensive first baseman. ) Older corner guys in his position frequently have a second life as a platoon bat, but Mancini’s lack of a weak side might paradoxically make him less employable. Or at least a lack of an easily identifiable weak side; Mancini has even platoon splits for his career, but posted a huge split this year and a huge reverse split last year For a rebuilding team with a need for at-bats at first or DH, Mancini makes sense. Maybe he’ll tap into his 2019 potential and be flippable at the deadline. At the very least, he’ll set a good example for the kids. But contenders will probably be able to find better options. – MB 32. Johnny Cueto, SP , Age 37 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens1$12. 0 M$12. 0 MMedian Crowdsource1$8. 0 M$8. 0 MAvg Crowdsource1. 2$8. 9 M$10. 8 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR152. 06. 2%16. 1%41. 7%4. 684. 624. 500. 90. 7 Player Notes 33. Andrew Heaney, SP , Age 32 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens1$12. 0 M$12. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$10. 0 M$20. 0 MAvg Crowdsource1. 91$10. 5 M$20. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR140. 06. 7%28. 1%37. 2%3. 593. 533. 422. 62. 6 Player Notes 34. Ross Stripling, SP , Age 33 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens3$10. 0 M$30. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$11. 0 M$22. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 3$10. 6 M$24. 3 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR147. 05. 7%19. 3%40. 9%4. 314. 244. 081. 51. 3 Player Notes Stripling would presumably prefer a spot in a team’s rotation over a bullpen role, and his 2022 splits suggest that he’ll get that opportunity. The Texas A&M product made 24 of his 32 appearances as a starter, and he did so to the tune of a 2. 92 ERA and . 229 batting average against. Improved command and increased changeup usage played heavily into that success. Among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, only Corey Kluber (1. 16) and Aaron Nola (1. 27) walked fewer batters per nine innings than Stripling (1. 34) did. Meanwhile, his changeup, which he threw 27. 3% of the time — nearly double his career average — yielded a 203 BAA and a . 241 wOBA. – DL 35. Michael Brantley, OF , Age 36 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens1$10. 0 M$10. 0 MMedian Crowdsource1$12. 0 M$12. 0 MAvg Crowdsource1. 42$12. 4 M$17. 7 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR4698. 3%12. 3%. 283. 347. 416. 3341177. 8-9. 11. 5 Player Notes He’s like one of those aging NBA forwards whose knees went south ages ago, but who can still lean through gaps in the defense, pick out a pass, and bury uncontested jumpers all the livelong day. Those guys, like Brantley, can help a contender until they’re walking with a cane. If not Houston, Brantley will be at the top of some team’s batting order next spring. – MB 36. Jurickson Profar, OF , Age 30 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$10. 0 M$20. 0 MMedian Crowdsource3$10. 0 M$30. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 88$10. 8 M$31. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR58110. 3%16. 0%. 241. 326. 389. 3161053. 1-7. 91. 5 Player Notes As to whether he can do it again, it’s worth noting that Profar has alternated solid seasons and subpar ones for the past half-decade, with a 107 wRC+ in 2018 and a 113 mark in ’20, but an 86 in ’19 and a 90 in ’21; he was 0. 7 wins below replacement in 412 PA just last year. Such ups and downs could limit his payday, and if he opts out of his $7. 5 million salary for 2022 (and therefore a $10 million mutual option for ’23), the Padres may wind up stashing Fernando Tatis Jr. in left field. – JJ 37. Brandon Drury, IF , Age 30 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$9. 0 M$18. 0 MMedian Crowdsource3$10. 0 M$30. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 74$10. 4 M$29. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR5676. 4%21. 5%. 247. 302. 426. 3171052. 0-4. 71. 7 Player Notes 38. Josh Bell, 1B , Age 30 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$9. 0 M$18. 0 MMedian Crowdsource3$13. 0 M$39. 0 MAvg Crowdsource3$14. 2 M$43. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR61611. 6%17. 6%. 256. 347. 439. 34212313. 8-14. 42. 1 Player Notes Quips about free agents making or losing money with a hot pennant race or postseason are usually nothing more than idle chatter, but Bell’s inconsistency is nothing new. He followed up a 37-homer, 135 wRC+ All-Star campaign in 2019 with a . 226/. 305/. 364 line in ‘20. The upside with Bell, who just turned 30 in August, is tremendous. 30-homer power from a switch hitter with only trivial platoon splits, enough walks to provide offensive value even if the power sags a little, and startlingly few strikeouts for a hitter of his size and strength. He could be the bargain of the offseason if he finds the right situation Or he could be the biggest player in the league with a SLG below . 300. Which I guess is why he’s only no. 38 on this list. – MB 39. Michael Wacha, SP , Age 31 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$10. 0 M$20. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$10. 0 M$20. 0 MAvg Crowdsource1. 99$9. 9 M$19. 8 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR150. 06. 5%19. 7%41. 6%4. 434. 364. 111. 51. 2 Player Notes Wacha was a workhorse by today’s standards when he had his career-best year in 2015. Pitching for a St. Louis Cardinals team that played October baseball for the third straight season, he went 17-7 with a 3. 38 ERA over 181. 1 innings. That he’s unlikely to approach that number of innings going forward won’t concern teams if he can approximate what he did in this year’s return to form. The Red Sox would like to bring him back, but competition for his services will be plentiful. Established pitchers with Wacha’s 2022 numbers — even ones who rely more on guile than raw stuff — don’t exactly grow on trees. – DL 40. Kevin Kiermaier, OF , Age 33 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$10. 0 M$20. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$8. 0 M$16. 0 MAvg Crowdsource1. 64$8. 9 M$15. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR4346. 8%25. 5%. 230. 288. 363. 28684-7. 23. 81. 1 Player Notes Kiermaier is a fit for a lot of teams. Given their adventure-prone corner outfielders, his glove would make having a sub-. 300 OBP in the lineup worth it for the Phillies. He would represent a significant upgrade for the Cardinals, who have leaned on Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill to play the majority of center field innings since the team traded Harrison Bader to land Jordan Montgomery. His presence would allow the Giants to move Mike Yastrzemski back to a corner in their cavernous outfield. And the Cubs are tiptoeing into contention without a true center field option. The list goes on. Kiermaier’s not going to get even a $50 million contract, but he’ll get more attention than most average players coming off an injury. – DS 41. Chad Green, RP , Age 32 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$7. 0 M$14. 0 MMedian Crowdsource1$5. 0 M$5. 0 MAvg Crowdsource1. 55$5. 5 M$8. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR32. 07. 0%26. 1%33. 4%3. 693. 683. 770. 10. 1 Player Notes 42. Mike Clevinger, SP , Age 32 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens1$9. 0 M$9. 0 MMedian Crowdsource1$8. 0 M$8. 0 MAvg Crowdsource1. 57$9. 1 M$14. 3 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR151. 07. 0%20. 1%37. 2%4. 444. 404. 331. 41. 2 Player Notes He returned in May 2022, but as a much less effective pitcher than he was before the procedure. His fastball was down a couple of ticks; if that had been the only issue, he might have adjusted, but his return also came with a less effective slider, costing him his big swing-and-miss pitch. Of the 105 pitchers to face at least 100 batters in 2019, Clevinger’s slider had the eighth-best whiff rate; this year, it ranked 99th. He started throwing a cutter, but he mostly put it over the plate rather than tempting hitters on the edge of the zone, giving it the character of a slider that failed to slide. He largely abandoned his 12-6 curve and his changeup still looks like an afterthought. Clevinger was left without a dependable pitch to punch out batters, as his disappointing numbers attest. Lots of players come back from major surgery, but fewer survive losing 40% of their whiffs His two brutal playoff appearances didn’t exactly enhance his value, and I expect that teams will approach him less as a plug-and-play talent than as a reclamation project. I’m not going to shovel dirt on Clevinger’s career, but if a front office thinks they expect him to throw 170 innings as their no. 2 starter, I suspect they’ll see the folly of their calculations before too long. – DS 43. Matt Carpenter, IF , Age 37 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens1$9. 0 M$9. 0 MMedian Crowdsource1$6. 0 M$6. 0 MAvg Crowdsource1. 18$6. 6 M$7. 7 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR46911. 4%26. 7%. 221. 322. 406. 3211082. 6-9. 60. 9 Player Notes An injury-plagued Yankees team scooped him up, and to everyone’s surprise, Carpenter was an offensive machine for New York in the second half of the season. In just 154 plate appearances, he hit 15 home runs to go with a . 305 batting average. That’s better than Aaron Judge’s PA/HR rate, and the Yankees didn’t even protect Carpenter against southpaws, something the Cardinals tried to do in his final seasons in St. Louis to maximize his value as a role player. Carpenter hit five homers against lefties, a mark he’s only bested twice in his career, and it only took him 38 plate appearances to do it I was too dismissive of Carpenter’s performance with Round Rock, a mistake that other analysts and certainly the Texas Rangers were also guilty of. Yes, it was a small sample, but ZiPS translated his Triple-A line at . 236/. 323/. 494. Even if that is well below the video game numbers he put up with the Yankees, that line would have been an upgrade at first base or designated hitter for a lot of teams. If Carpenter had ended up a Brewer, for instance, Milwaukee would likely have made the playoffs while the Phillies spent the month watching baseball from home Now, teams shouldn’t make drastic changes to their plans to accommodate a 37-year-old coming off what might have been his last hurrah. But Carpenter did enough in 2022 that he should at least be back in the free agent picture. To my mind, the ideal destination for him would be a contender with a real need at 1B/DH. – DS 44. Kenley Jansen, RP , Age 35 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens1$10. 0 M$10. 0 MMedian Crowdsource1$12. 0 M$12. 0 MAvg Crowdsource1. 42$12. 0 M$17. 1 M2023 Steamer Projections IPBB%K%GB%ERAFIPxFIPWARRA9-WAR63. 09. 3%26. 9%33. 4%3. 913. 843. 940. 50. 5 Player Notes Even with Raisel Iglesias under contract, the Braves have indicated a desire to retain Jansen. We’ll see if that outweighs the pull of a potential return to “California Love. ” – JJ 45. Omar Narváez, C , Age 31 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$8. 0 M$16. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$7. 0 M$14. 0 MAvg Crowdsource1. 98$7. 6 M$15. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR4269. 2%19. 6%. 239. 316. 359. 30093-4. 45. 02. 2 Player Notes Is there reason to believe the offense will bounce back? During Narváez’s productive 2021 season, his expected stats (. 304 xwOBA) were actually a tad worse than his surface-level line (. 322 wOBA), so this season may be part of a broader decline rather than a blip. The all-fields contact ability that propelled Narváez to his All-Star peak still enabled him to slash a handful of opposite-field doubles in 2022, but at this stage, he’s a backup catcher best paired with a righty-hitting starter, which might relieve some of the physical burden of catching from both parties and create more overall production at the position. – EL 46. Christian Vázquez, C , Age 32 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$8. 0 M$16. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$8. 0 M$16. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 09$8. 7 M$18. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR4106. 0%17. 3%. 254. 303. 377. 29992-5. 88. 82. 1 Player Notes Drafted by Boston in 2008 out of the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Vázquez remained in the Red Sox organization until he was dealt to Houston at this year’s trade deadline. Martín Maldonado’s anemic bat was likely the primary motivation, but the Astros presumably also had playoff experience — an attribute that adds to his free-agency appeal — in mind when they acquired Vázquez in exchange for a pair of prospects. Lauded for his ability to work with a pitching staff, the strong-armed catcher came into October with 25 postseason games under his belt, including five in the Fall Classic. He added a second World Series ring to his collection with Houston’s victory Saturday. – DL 47. Mitch Haniger, OF , Age 32 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens3$8. 0 M$24. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$12. 0 M$24. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 26$12. 6 M$28. 4 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR6098. 6%23. 3%. 250. 323. 448. 33411710. 6-10. 62. 1 Player Notes And injuries once again held Haniger back in 2022, as he missed three months due to a high ankle sprain; between that absence and his defensive struggles, he finished the year with just 0. 8 WAR. Optimists can point to his 2021 as a sign of what he can do when everything clicks; even with the strikeouts, he finished with the 18th-best wRC+ (121) among qualified outfielders that season. That seems like the ceiling, though, and the floor is a fine if unexceptional hitter whose defense undermines it all. Haniger’s reputation as a clubhouse leader par excellence will paper over some of that worry, making him a strong option for mid-tier contenders who need cheap thump in the middle of the lineup. – JT 48. Joc Pederson, OF , Age 31 Contract Estimate TypeYearsAAVTotalBen Clemens2$9. 0 M$18. 0 MMedian Crowdsource2$10. 0 M$20. 0 MAvg Crowdsource2. 08$11. 0 M$23. 0 M2023 Steamer Projections PABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR5329. 0%23. 6%. 243. 322. 459. 33711911. 4-9. 82. 0 Player Notes Unlike some of his prior orgs, the Giants didn’t succumb to any fever dreams that Pederson would start to hit lefties, or pretend that he could cosplay as a competent center fielder. Manager Gabe Kapler did the Earl Weaver thing, focusing on Pederson’s strengths, putting him in the best position to leverage those abilities and finding other dudes to do the stuff that Pederson can’t. Just letting Joc go out there and crush northpaws allowed him to put up a career-best 144 wRC+ in 433 plate appearances, earning him his second All-Star appearance Who are the top 2023 MLB free agents?Top 35 MLB 2022-2023 Free Agents . Aaron Judge (OF) Jacob deGrom (SP) Justin Verlander (SP) Trea Turner (SS) Carlos Correa (SS) Carlos Rodón (SP) Xander Bogaerts (SS) Dansby Swanson (SS) Who are the top MLB free agents this year?Top 12 remaining MLB free agents and their best team fits . Michael Wacha, RHP. Age. 31. WAR. 3. 3. . Jurickson Profar, LF. Age. 29. Bats. Both Throws. Right. . Elvis Andrus, SS. Age. 34. . Zack Greinke, RHP. Age. 39. . Trey Mancini, 1B/DH/LF. Age. 30. . Andrew McCutchen, OF. Age. 36. . Adam Duvall, OF. Age. 34. . Josh Harrison, INF/OF. Age. 35 Who will be a free agent in 2024 MLB?2024 MLB Free Agents Who is the top free agent in MLB?Carlos Rodón, pitcher, San Francisco Giants — Signed w/ Yankees for 6 years, $162 million. The San Francisco Giants and Carlos Rodón both took a gamble in free agency. Fast forward to the end of the 2022 MLB season and Rodón is coming out on top |