Tier List / NBA centers

It's time for our 12th annual NBA tiers, my alternative to power rankings. Grouping teams helps clarify the league's big-picture anatomy: who is where on the team-building spectrum, and which teams have mortgaged too much of their futures -- or sacrificed too much of their recent pasts -- to end up there.

Order within tiers does not matter.

Tier of their own I, provided, you know ... Brooklyn Nets

Tier of their own II: Milwaukee Bucks

It's hard to know how much fear and awe to grant the Bucks after their crescendo to the NBA title. Milwaukee's half-court offense, its fatal flaw in previous flameouts, ran aground against the best postseason opponent the Bucks faced -- the Nets.

Through five second-round games, Milwaukee lost itself in a haze of misdirected isolations, awful pull-up jumpers, and profitable mismatches ignored. They recovered to squeak by a Nets team without Kyrie Irving, and with a hobbled James Harden.

Milwaukee's half-court offense picked up against the Atlanta Hawks and Phoenix Suns, but only toward league-average production, per Cleaning The Glass. The Hawks arrived ahead of schedule. Milwaukee roared back against Phoenix -- an unexpected NBA Finals foe -- behind its unstoppable transition attack, a bloodbath on the offensive glass, and the utter brilliance of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Are we sure the champs can upend the fully loaded, supernova Nets?

But in clearing the final hurdle, the Bucks discovered things about themselves. They shed some of the fretful caution that pockmarked failed playoff runs. Khris Middleton settled into his role as Milwaukee's go-to pick-and-roll ace, in part because Antetokounmpo leaned into his own new identity as Milwaukee's go-to screen setter. Jrue Holiday learned to fill gaps within that evolving ecosystem -- including by assuming more ballhandling duties when teams hide weak defenders on him.

Milwaukee's defense, its constant under Mike Budenholzer, never relented. And Giannis. My god, Giannis. He rampaged through one of the greatest postseason runs ever: 30 points, 13 rebounds, five assists, 57% shooting, and all-world defense -- including his iconic block on Deandre Ayton to help seal Milwaukee's Game 4 Finals win.

But it was more about how he looked. Antetokounmpo hit half his shots from floater range after Game 5 in Brooklyn. He appeared more comfortable, more confident, flicking half-hooks and easing his way into his preferred range.

A lot of us over-obsessed about Antetokounmpo's experimentation with 3-pointers, raving about how unstoppable he would be if he could coax defenders into closing out. Maybe all Antetokounmpo needed was to become proficient from the extended paint -- to open up more face-up attacks and post moves for use against mismatches.

Antetokounmpo clinched the Finals with an improbable 17-of-19 Steve Nash impersonation at the line. He has hit 72% on free throws in the regular season, but just 61% in the playoffs. That suggests either a mental block, or the fatigue of postseason minutes exacting an unusual toll. If Antetokounmpo sustained that 72% mark -- if 17-of-19 portends any such thing -- it would erase some half-court sputtering.

The Bucks have the air of a team emboldened by what they accomplished. The return of Donte DiVincenzo rounds out their starting five; George Hill and Grayson Allen do the same for their bench.

With P.J. Tucker now with Miami, the Bucks might not have -- for now -- the sort of stout, switchable fire hydrant who allows them to play Antetokounmpo at center without sacrificing size. Perhaps they don't think they need that player -- that they can split center minutes between Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis, as they did for most of the last two playoff rounds, and that smaller Antetokounmpo-at-center constructions with two wings around Milwaukee's star trio will be dangerous enough.

The issue of who might guard Kevin Durant looms. Maybe it's Antetokounmpo in his next evolution. Maybe it's Holiday, though that requires someone else to defend Harden.

The wild card: Semi Ojeleye. He has hit 38% on corner 3s, and he approximates Tucker's switchy build -- if not Tucker's sly brutality. The Bucks did not sign Ojeleye by accident.

If the Nets' Big Three -- Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden -- are all healthy and available, Brooklyn is a deserving title favorite.EPA/JUSTIN LANE SHUTTERSTOCK

Brooklyn, meanwhile, might be one two-way perimeter player short of its optimal roster. The Nets are overloaded with bigs: Blake Griffin, LaMarcus Aldridge, Paul Millsap, James Johnson, and the ultra-switchy Nicolas Claxton. Playing two at once slides Durant to small forward; the Nets are best with him at power forward or as something of a co-center, as he was alongside Jeff Green in lethal small-ball groups.

Durant will start at power forward alongside Irving, Harden, and Joe Harris. If one of those three is out, the perimeter replacement is either a minus defender (Patty Mills); a shaky shooter who limits Nash's lineup flexibility (Bruce Brown, Jevon Carter); or a rookie (Cam Thomas). Johnson can fill Green's role as Durant's co-center, but Johnson is almost 35 and not in Green's league as a 3-point shooter.

Irving's availability is obviously in question. Is he going to refuse vaccination and risk missing home games all season? Will that cost him a gigantic contract extension? Will the Nets even accept Irving as part-timer? If this situation persists into the playoffs, Brooklyn falls into Milwaukee's tier -- at best. For now, let's assume Irving joins full time at some point. Even then, Brooklyn's stars have to show they can stay healthy at the same time.

Every non-Irving concern amounts to nit-picking. Brooklyn's superstar trio has enough shooting and playmaking to absorb pretty much any combination of teammates and remain elite on offense. Griffin, Aldridge, and Millsap take enough 3s to keep defenses honest, and maybe to play alongside a screen-and-dive guy like Brown or Johnson. Carter quietly hit 37% on 7.6 3s per 36 minutes last season, including 40% from the corners.

The Nets before injuries flashed a surprising pass-and-cut chemistry, and a "just good enough" gear on defense. With a full roster, they are deserving favorites.

Before Irving's future became at least somewhat in question, both these teams seemed primed for "we'll show you" super-motivated seasons: the Bucks because of what they have just done; the Nets because their three stars, subject to so much scrutiny, barely got to play together. This could be a perfect rivalry.

LeBron James, 37, is the greatest problem solver in NBA history. And he'll have plenty of work to do on that front with the Lakers' offseason roster overhaul.EPA/CAROLINE BREHMAN SHUTTERSTOCK

Above the play-in fray: West

Los Angeles Lakers

Phoenix Suns

Utah Jazz

* I almost slotted the Lakers in their own tier or with the Bucks. Look past the roster churn and the Lakers have been consistently great with both LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing -- and even more potent when Davis slides to center alongside LeBron, which Davis did for only 173 possessions last season (per Cleaning The Glass) and figures to do much more.

Adding Russell Westbrook requires Davis play center at least as often as he did in L.A.'s 2020 championship season. The Lakers will fill Westbrook/LeBron/Davis-at-center lineups with two among Wayne Ellington, Trevor Ariza, Kent Bazemore, Kendrick Nunn, Malik Monk, Talen Horton-Tucker, Rajon Rondo, and Carmelo Anthony. Gulp.

Peak LeBron and co-stars have carried blah fourth and fifth starters to championships. But, like, look at those options: Several would fail (and failed last season!) to crack some postseason rotations!

LeBron is almost 37, second all time in minutes. The injuries that derailed two of his three seasons in L.A. were fluky-ish, but it's probably time to assume some mortal wear and tear.

Of course, that's why Davis and Westbrook are here. Westbrook will amp up the pace -- the Lakers were a fast-breaking death machine two seasons ago -- and shoulder the offense when James rests. (Worth nothing: The Washington Wizards stunk when Westbrook played without Bradley Beal. Westbrook is almost 33, with knee and leg injuries in the rearview mirror.)

There's also the question of what, precisely, Westbrook will do (other than stand around unguarded) in hothouse playoff possessions while LeBron has the ball. Westbrook has never set more than 68 ball screens in any season, per Second Spectrum. He set 19 in Washington. Nineteen! Bismack Biyombo runs into his own ball handlers by accident at least that many times!

Westbrook should shatter his career high in that category. He is a natural fit for pet sets in which a perimeter player screens off-ball for Davis in the corner.

LeBron is the greatest problem-solver in league history, and he is itching to prove he can solve these alleged problems. I'd bet on James nudging Westbrook toward more useful off-ball activities. One or two of those unheralded wing options will pop. (I loved the fliers on Nunn, Monk, and Bazemore. Horton-Tucker has intriguing two-way potential.)

The through line of the Frank Vogel era has been airtight defense. Several of those minutes-sopping wings are defensive liabilities; their predecessors, including Alex Caruso, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Danny Green, were reliable. Is it too much to ask of James and Davis to lift this group to a top-five defense?

If Jamal Murray and Kawhi Leonard are healthy, I might have both the Denver Nuggets and LA Clippers a tick above the Lakers. But they're not. James and Davis are. The Lakers enter as favorites in the West.

* I've talked about what a massive season this is for Utah here and here. Falling short of expectations could unleash pent-up turmoil.

Utah slunk out of the past four postseasons. In the first two -- first- and second-round losses to the Houston Rockets -- its offense collapsed amid hails of missed open jumpers. In the most recent two -- fall-from-ahead losses to the Nuggets in the first round, and to the Leonard-less Clippers in last year's conference semifinals -- Utah's revamped offense showed up only for its vaunted defense to spring leaks.

Can the Jazz finally put it all together when it matters? They return their top seven players after posting one of the fattest per-game victory margins ever. They remodeled their backup big brigade with Rudy Gay, Hassan Whiteside, and Eric Paschall. On continuity alone, they should maybe repeat as the No. 1 seed.

Donovan Mitchell has established himself as a postseason killer. If he and Mike Conley were healthy in last season's playoffs, Utah might have reached the Finals.

I'm not sure they improved their perimeter defense -- their real undoing against the Clippers. Rudy Gobert has to do more on offense to punish teams who downsize against Utah.

* Phoenix caught injury-related breaks on their path to the Finals, but beware shoving them down a tier. Barring a prolonged injury to Chris Paul, these guys are rock solid top to bottom on both ends. Three of their four best players -- Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, and Ayton -- should improve with experience. Landry Shamet brings a new, quick-trigger dimension, but it's unclear how much he can play alongside both Paul and Booker.

Monty Williams will not allow the Suns to let up. They have the means to make a helpful in-season trade.

With a heathy Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown -- and the ongoing Ben Simmons mess in Philly -- the Celtics could sneak right into Eastern Conference contention.Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Someone is falling into the play-in race: East

Atlanta Hawks

Boston Celtics

Miami Heat

Philadelphia 76ers

My order of confidence in play-in-avoidance would probably go as listed here.

* We don't know when or how the Ben Simmons situation will resolve itself. (Joel Embiid told zero lies in his soliloquy about how the Sixers remade their roster over and over -- including in their watershed decision to sign and trade Jimmy Butler -- to convenience Simmons.)

The Sixers have a solid track record when Embiid plays without his discontented co-star; they walloped opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions in such minutes two seasons ago, but that margin fell to 1.5 points in 2020-21, per Cleaning The Glass, mostly due to rickety defense.

Several rising perimeter guys might keep non-Simmons lineups afloat: Tyrese Maxey, Shake Milton, Matisse Thybulle, Furkan Korkmaz, Jaden Springer. Embiid by himself makes Philly formidable. Georges Niang can play power forward around Embiid, and maybe even alongside both Embiid and Tobias Harris, if need be.

But playing full time without Simmons strains Philly's roster, and shrinks its margin for error -- and for Embiid missing time. The defensive burden on Embiid becomes enormous.

The Sixers (mostly Embiid) deserve the benefit of the doubt, but they will feel unstable until the Simmons end game.

* Atlanta is legit, and probably my pick for No. 3 in the East. They sniffed last season's Finals despite constant waves of injuries -- including to Bogdan Bogdanovic and De'Andre Hunter in the postseason. Delon Wright and Gorgui Dieng are worthy stopgaps at backup point guard and center, and should help the Hawks continue the defensive improvement they showed under Nate McMillan. Every young guy should get better. John Collins tapped into a new version of himself in the playoffs -- one who embraces the dirty work, and can still impact the game at a star level.

The Hawks are super deep, they play hard, and they know who they are -- and how to orbit an offensive superstar in Trae Young. That's a powerful combination.

* The Heat have the most championship equity of this group, but their shallowness worries in the regular season. Their bench beyond Tyler Herro and Dewayne Dedmon is a mess of shaky veterans; unproven young guys; and one potential game-changer in Victor Oladipo whose health is an unknown. (I expect Gabe Vincent to get a real shot at backup point guard, and Max Strus can do some things.)

Dedmon excelled as Bam Adebayo's backup. I'm bullish on a big Herro bounce back. Still, that's a lot of uncertainty, and minimal buffer against injury to Kyle Lowry, Butler, or Adebayo.

All Miami wants is to escape the play-in, and dodge Milwaukee and Brooklyn until the second round. The Heat's offense will be hit or miss with the punchless Tucker starting, but their defense is hellacious; the Lowry/Butler/Adebayo trio is straight-up mean, a human triangle choke hold that laughs in your face while squeezing the air out of you.

Still, it would not surprise me at all if the hyped-up Heat are at play-in risk in the last week of the season.

* People are sleeping on Boston. The Celtics are deep, with the makings of a top-5-ish defense; lineups featuring Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Robert Williams III will be hard to score against.

Don't fixate on Al Horford potentially starting games in what appears to be an antiquated double-big arrangement. It might actually work given the collective passing between Horford and Williams -- and the ability of Brown and Tatum to knife through tight corridors.

Regardless, Boston will play Brown at power forward a ton, and it has the depth to build those lineups between Payton Pritchard, Josh Richardson, Dennis Schroder, and Aaron Nesmith. (I liked Nesmith's last 20 games, and Richardson is better than he looked amid dysfunctional spacing in Philly and bouts with COVID-19 in Dallas. Smart can play beside Schroder or Pritchard.)

If either Grant Williams or Juancho Hernangomez proves a reliable bridge between those two lineup types, Boston is in business.

Even though the Mavericks didn't land a secondary ball handler to pair with Luka Doncic, the combination of Doncic, surrounding shooters and good defense could catapult Dallas into real contention.AP Photo/Ashley Landis

The West morass: five teams, three spots above play-in

Denver Nuggets

LA Clippers

Portland Trail Blazers

Dallas Mavericks

Golden State Warriors

This is the most interesting part of the league, and the toughest to project, because of injuries to stars on three teams, and new coaches on the other two.

These five round out my predicted West playoff field. The harsh reality is two will have to gut through the play-in. Which ones? Damned if I know.

* Dallas would be my first above-the-play-in choice if we knew more about Jason Kidd's plans. My hottest take is that the Mavs have a realistic chance to make the Finals if Kidd would basically replicate Rick Carlisle's stuff. Luka Doncic is that good, and even better in the postseason -- provided Dallas can keep him humming in second halves.

In the rush to slam Kidd -- which I get -- too much is being made of his early decision to start Kristaps Porzingis at power forward alongside rim-running Dwight Powell. If Porzingis is healthy and mobile, that group can work -- even if I prefer the Porzingis/Maxi Kleber pairing. The Mavs outscored opponents by eight points per 100 possessions with the Doncic/Porzingis/Powell trio two seasons ago.

Preseason pronouncements are not binding. Even Kidd's push to feed Porzingis post touches -- an obviously bad idea in high volume -- might be part of a long game to keep Porzingis engaged and hone his post skills against mismatches, a necessary ingredient in any long playoff run.

If Kidd clings to his failed Milwaukee-era blitzing defense as the Mavs' full-time scheme, they are toast as contenders.

Let's wait and see. Dallas did not find a reliable secondary ball handler around Doncic -- as if such All-Stars are easy to acquire -- but the combination of Doncic, surrounding shooters, and sound defense gets Dallas into lofty territory.

* Provided good health for Nikola Jokic, Denver should hold it together without Murray -- who might have a better chance than Leonard of contributing this season given the timing of their injuries. Michael Porter Jr. is ready for a No. 2 role; the Monte Morris/Will Barton/Aaron Gordon/Porter/Jokic potential starting five is a nice two-way group, and the Nuggets have just enough depth across all five positions -- assuming Michael Malone staggers minutes so the offense doesn't die when Jokic rests. (I got into Denver more here.)

* As discussed on the Lowe Post podcast, Golden State might have the highest ceiling among this group -- a Finals ceiling in a strange season with Murray and Leonard missing from the jump. Klay Thompson should beat Murray and Leonard back, with some reasonable chance of recovering 90 percent of his peak game. His foundational skill ages well, though we can't really have any idea what he might look like in the springtime. Ninety percent of Thompson locks this roster into place.

Thompson aside, the Warriors are done messing around trying to win and develop youth at once. They are going for it, period. They destroyed opponents last season whenever Draymond Green and Stephen Curry played without James Wiseman -- and the margin ballooned with Kevon Looney, presumed starting center, on the floor.

Once the Warriors reemphasized their preferred style -- and gave more minutes to guys like Juan Toscano-Anderson who can play it -- they looked like themselves: sprinting with small-ball lineups, passing and cutting defenses into dizziness, bombing tons of 3s. They will hit the ground running.

Jordan Poole likely opens in Thompson's starting spot, and Golden State obliterated opponents by 18 points per 100 possessions in 221 minutes with the Curry/Poole pairing.

Their defense -- No. 5 overall -- is real.

Their status above the play-in is fragile, and not just because of Thompson. The Warriors project as a terrible rebounding team. Their offense cratered whenever Curry rested. Even when Thompson returns, they will need production from at least two among Andre Iguodala, Otto Porter Jr., Nemanja Bjelica, Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga, and Wiseman.

That's scary given the youth of those last three, Iguodala's age, and the recent play of Bjelica and Porter. (Porter can really shoot, and appears in shape.)

* I suppose this relegates the Clippers and Blazers into the play-in. I don't feel great about it!

Portland's starting five, led by Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, outscored opponents by 13.5 points per 100 possessions last season. To address its 29th-ranked defense, the team swapped Carmelo Anthony and Enes Kanter for Larry Nance Jr. and Cody Zeller.AP Photo/Matt York

Portland's top six are awesome. Their starting five represented one of the league's best lineups: plus-13.5 per 100 possessions. That group somehow outscored Denver in the first round by 47 points in 112 minutes -- in a series Portland lost!

Portland's defense, an embarrassing 29th, was steady whenever Jusuf Nurkic played. The Blazers replaced the flammable bench duo of Anthony and Enes Kanter with Larry Nance Jr. and Cody Zeller. Portland was bad at basically every aspect of defense. It figured to improve under Chauncey Billups, if only by random luck.

Portland could easily snag a top-four seed, but I'm nervous about their depth beyond Nance. Zeller is fine, but I'd rather play Nance at backup center. Going that route requires productive minutes from Portland's cadre of unproven and proven-to-not-be-that-good reserve wings: Anfernee Simons, getting run as backup point guard; Tony Snell; Ben McLemore; and perhaps Nassir Little sliding between forward spots.

Snell and McLemore bring shooting, but not much else on offense. (Snell is a solid defender.) Portland might have to play the Robert Covington/Nance/Nurkic combination, which should be stingy on defense but maybe creaky on offense.

This team could be really good, but also more susceptible than most to injury. If they struggle early, does the Damian Lillard situation get funky?

* I have no clue what to make of the Clippers. They are deep, and should be top 10-ish on defense. Paul George as solo star was a formula for mid-40s win totals with the Indiana Pacers, but that was long ago in NBA years. Serge Ibaka remains out, but the Clippers are well-constructed to play the centerless style that flummoxed Dallas and Utah in the postseason.

The offense might take time; the Clippers sunk to league-average efficiency with Leonard on the bench -- including minutes George played. They depended more than is usual for great offenses on elite jump-shooting. Can they replicate that with Eric Bledsoe in Leonard's starting spot, playing heavy minutes with a non-shooting center in Ivica Zubac?

Bledsoe might be a better fit playing reserve minutes alongside Ibaka; I'd wager the Clippers try Terance Mann (so exciting!), Nicolas Batum, and maybe Luke Kennard starting next to Reggie Jackson.

Things could get sludgy, though Bledsoe should bump the pace and help the Clippers get to the rim.

Threats to escape the play-in: varsity division

New York Knicks

Chicago Bulls

Charlotte Hornets

Memphis Grizzlies

Prediction: New York or Chicago cracks the East's top six. I'd lean Knicks, especially with Patrick Williams already injured.

* I liked New York's offseason even before they swiped Kemba Walker. Every move evinced an honest accounting of the quality and sustainability of last season's team. The Knicks wagered they could diversify an isolation-heavy offense that stalled in the playoffs -- adding off-the-bounce threats in Walker and Evan Fournier -- without submarining their defense.

That defense might slip some; the Knicks can't count on opponents shooting a league-worst 33.8% from deep again. But they will nail rotations as long as Tom Thibodeau is there.

New York is 10 deep; the Derrick Rose/Alec Burks/Immanuel Quickley trio mauled opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions last season.

* I'm torn on the Bulls, as I've discussed on the Lowe Post. Their offense should be really good; Lonzo Ball, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic complement each other, though it might take time for them to figure out how to share space. (More LaVine off the ball is healthy.) Billy Donovan can keep two of LaVine/DeRozan/Vucevic on the floor at all times to goose offense.

Derrick Jones Jr. and Caruso bring defense; the Bulls might close some games with Caruso in Williams' spot, and DeRozan as small-ball power forward.

Defense and depth are concerns. What does, say, the No. 8 offense and No. 20 defense get you?

* Fans of the Raptors, Wizards, and Pacers will be mad seeing Charlotte here. I get it. I have no idea how the Hornets cobbled a league-average defense while playing bundles of small ball, hemorrhaging rebounds, and allowing the second-most 3s (including the most corner 3s!) and fourth-most rim attempts.

That is some serious smoke and mirrors, and Charlotte's zone -- which they played more than anyone, per Second Spectrum -- sewed confusion.

They will likely play smaller even more often without a viable center behind Mason Plumlee. Lineups with P.J. Washington at center outscored opponents by about six points per 100 possessions despite god-awful rebounding; can that hold up?

LaMelo Ball, 20, is a perfect fit with the Hornets' other young prospects, P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges, for a trio that forms one of Charlotte's most formidable small-ball lineups.Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

But there is just something about this team. LaMelo Ball is real. He is a perfect fit with Washington and Miles Bridges, guys at the right age to make mini-leaps. (Bridges made a big one last season.) Gordon Hayward is healthy and with Kelly Oubre Jr. gives Charlotte depth and strength at the wing -- grist for small-ball groups.

These guys have a good spirit. Old and slow teams absolutely hate playing them. I smell something.

* I expected a step back for the Grizz last season, and they spat in my face. Their placement here is less about them, and more about those above them. Even here, they are snug in the play-in.

They fed Jonas Valanciunas all he could eat, and part of swapping him for Steven Adams (aside from snagging picks) was to shift those shots to Jaren Jackson Jr. They need Jackson's shooting, and to see exactly what they have in him.

Integrating the Jackson-Adams frontcourt will bring hiccups. Adams is a downgrade on offense, and Jackson has yet to find his footing on defense regardless of position or scheme. With Jackson back, the Grizz must decide between starting Kyle "Slow Mo" Anderson at small forward after he shifted last season to power forward -- a better fit -- or bringing him off the bench as backup four.

But the Grizz are deep. Taylor Jenkins is a good coach. Ja Morant is out for blood.

East play-in candidates: junior varsity

Indiana Pacers

Washington Wizards

Toronto Raptors

I feel squeamish doubting Nick Nurse and Rick Carlisle teams, and I always seem low on the Pacers -- only for them to prove me wrong.

* The Pacers and Raptors are dealing with injuries. T.J. Warren's return has been delayed, and Caris LeVert has a stress fracture in his back. Warren is a key connector for many lineup types.

Toronto's frontcourt is in shambles. Khem Birch has missed early camp, Chris Boucher is out three to four weeks with an injured finger, and Pascal Siakam will miss a medium-sized chunk of the season. Precious Achiuwa might have won the starting center job anyway, but that's a lot of early adversity.

Siakam leaves a huge void. I was (and am) interested to see how much Nurse might play him at center; between Goran Dragic, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr., and one or two other perimeter guys, Toronto has the depth to get to those lineups -- unless their centers play them out of existence. (Toronto can go the other way and play Boucher and Achiuwa some at power forward -- or together.)

The Raptors are long and nasty, and given Nurse's creativity, they should be a good and maybe a very good defensive team capable of playing lots of styles.

The offense could be a slog, with some core lineups light on shooting and playmaking.

* Indiana is the best here on sheer talent, but there is a lot to sort out. The foursome of Jeremy Lamb, Justin Holiday, Chris Duarte, and Torrey Craig provides insurance against injuries, but you don't want to rely too heavily on them. All of LeVert, Malcolm Brogdon, and Domantas Sabonis like to run the offense.

Indiana did some way out-of-the-box stuff last season, and most of it failed. Carlisle is a huge upgrade, but two overhauls in two years might create confusion. I'm interested in how committed Carlisle is to the Sabonis-Myles Turner pairing.

* The Wizards are a brand-new team around Beal. They're deeper, with more reliable veterans -- though too many tweeners who should probably all be power forwards.

But what are they really good at? Their defense -- No. 20 overall last season -- tightened over the final 20 games once Daniel Gafford came aboard. Kyle Kuzma and Caldwell-Pope are dependable. But the backcourt is squishy, and young guys make young guy mistakes.

Washington looked like a dangerous scoring outfit on paper last season, but it finished below league average -- and last in 3-point attempts. It looks good on paper again. How much can a new coach -- Wes Unseld Jr. -- translate that to reality? Staggering Beal and Spencer Dinwiddie is one easy move.

The Wiz just look pretty average, which should put them in play-in contention.

If Zion Williamson continues his run as an all-time interior scorer, the Pelicans should make a run for the play-in tournament -- at worst.Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

West play-in candidates: junior varsity

New Orleans Pelicans

Sacramento Kings

Minnesota Timberwolves

San Antonio Spurs

* At least one of these teams is cracking the play-in, and it wouldn't shock me if two get there. I'd probably -- and tentatively -- rank them in the above order, though I flip-flopped the Kings and Wolves several times.

* I went deep on the Spurs. They have potential, but I'm lower on them than consensus.

* Despite a wayward offseason -- and assuming a quick return for Zion Williamson -- the Pelicans should have a strong offense. They were up and down last season, and Willie Green will have to mesh Point Zion with Valanciunas' post game. (One solution: Williamson-Valanciunas pick-and-rolls!)

I have no clue what they are on the other end. They defended at a top-10 level over their final 40 games after a rare in-season schematic overhaul, but their four locked-in starters (Devonte' Graham, Brandon Ingram, Williamson, and Valanciunas) are below average for their positions -- some by an uncomfortable amount. Nickeil Alexander-Walker might claim the fifth spot; he is rangy, active, and smart -- but still young.

The bench is sturdier; Jaxson Hayes snatching backup center minutes from Willy Hernangomez should stabilize the back line.

New Orleans is pretty deep. If Williamson resumes his run as an all-time-great paint scorer, they should be in the play-in race -- at worst.

* Sacramento probably has more top-to-bottom talent than Minnesota, even if a lot of it is tied up in centers and smaller guards.

The Wolves' offense took off once Chris Finch took over, and D'Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, and Karl-Anthony Towns could finally play together. Their defense remained atrocious, and every potential fix comes at the (extreme) cost of shooting; as discussed here, the Wolves are lacking in two-way guys.

But Finch has more choices than he did a year ago, and several young guys should be on the upswing. More than anything, my cautious optimism is about Towns. If he is to emerge as a top-10-ish player, it's going to happen now.

* Sacramento had the worst defense in the NBA by an alarming margin. Davion Mitchell is a menace, but the Kings were heavy on guards already.

There is a .500 team in here if they stay healthy, feed Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes as many minutes at power forward and center as they can handle, and inch up the rankings on defense. (The Kings have outscored opponents with Holmes on the floor two seasons running.)

With De'Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton, scoring should not be an issue.

George Costanza freshly discarded éclair

Cleveland Cavaliers

Some rival executives are curious whether the Cavs have more going here than people realize. Most have no clue how Cleveland's core young guys -- small guards, tall bigs, very few in between -- fit together. A couple have suggested the Cavaliers might be the league's worst team!

I get why critics pigeonhole Collin Sexton as the new Jason Terry bench gunner -- a fine outcome, by the way -- but I'm not sure any season of 24 points per game on efficient shooting has been as snottily dismissed as Sexton's 2020-21 campaign. Even in an unprecedented scoring boom, that's not easy!

Darius Garland has All-Star potential. Ricky Rubio is a helpful third guard. Isaac Okoro will advance as a defender and spot-up guy. Lauri Markkanen finally lived up to his billing as a shooter last season; any two-man combination of Markkanen, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley should be workable -- even if Mobley struggles early on offense.

Players eight and on are meh, and their already-stagnant offense could grind to a gross dribble-dribble-dribble halt without playmaking from Nance and Kevin Love (whose role is unclear). Building anything like an average defense will be a challenge.

But the Cavs are better than the below group. If enough things hit, they could be within shouting distance of the play-in race late.

The bottom

Detroit Pistons

Oklahoma City Thunder

Houston Rockets

Orlando Magic

Who finishes with the best record here? The Thunder probably have the best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -- and the most unusual in terms of mix of size and skills, Aleksej Pokusevski -- but the roster is raw.

Detroit can run solid three-man frontcourts with Saddiq Bey and combinations of Jerami Grant, Kelly Olynyk, Isaiah "Beef Stew" Stewart, and Trey Lyles; and five-man lineups of Cade Cunningham, Killian Hayes, Bey, Grant, and either Stewart or Olynyk seem frisky -- until you remember rookie ball handlers on bad teams generally struggle.

Detroit is going to be tough as hell, and grind out more wins than you'd expect.

Houston is similar: two young, overeager ball handlers in Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr.; an interesting collection of bigs in Christian Wood -- who would surely, along with Grant, debate Gilgeous-Alexander's alpha status here -- Daniel Theis, and Alperen Sengun; and some helter-skelter slashing backup wing types (at least one of whom will start) who mirror the jolting chaos of Josh Jackson and Hamidou Diallo in Detroit. (Wood will likely play some power forward alongside each of Theis and Sengun.)

Is it wild to pitch Orlando, even with Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac still recovering from ACL tears; a bunch of untested kiddos; and too many centers? Maybe!

But once Isaac and Fultz return, the Magic might have the most third- and fourth-year types in this tier ready to rise. A starting five of Fultz, Jalen Suggs, Chuma Okeke, Isaac, and Wendell Carter Jr. is interesting despite what might be an appalling lack of shooting -- right? Right? Anyone?

Terrence Ross and Gary Harris are still here! Robin Lopez has the greatest hook shot since prime Kareem Abdul-Jabbar! Stuff the Magic Dragon is the best mascot in a pretty strong mascot grouping!

And that's it! Let the games begin!